Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
90.35 – 126.78
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
143 – 129
Prediction missed · off by 27.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 68.34Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 13.39Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 8.62Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 11.49Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 31.53Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 83.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1391, 10400, 4652
63
/ 100 compatProjected
90.4 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 1391, 10400, 4652
Auto
18.8 21%
Teleop
62.8 70%
Endgame
8.0 9%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5401, 4637, 1218
82
/ 100 compatProjected
126.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 5401, 4637, 1218
Auto
15.0 12%
Teleop
79.5 64%
Endgame
30.4 24%
Strengths
- · 1218 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score90.4pts
Blue projected score126.8pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -36.4
- Score range
- 74–143
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
315.2Season APEX377.8
18.8Auto15
62.8Teleop79.5
8Endgame30.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 9 |
| teleop | 96 | 101 |
| endgame | 32 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 143 | 129 |
Result
Final score
143 – 129
Prediction missed · off by 27.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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