Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.84 – 58.45

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±12.2

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 24.46Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX 26.49Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 4.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±11.6

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 14.3Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 43.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 0.53Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10157, 8704, 5732

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 8704, 5732

Auto

12.6 25%

Teleop

22.8 44%

Endgame

15.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11104, 5789, 2722

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 5789, 2722

Auto

3.7 7%

Teleop

31.7 58%

Endgame

19.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.6
Score range: 38–76
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 86 vs event baseline 97.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143Season APEX168.1

12.6Auto3.7

22.8Teleop31.7

15.9Endgame19.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	13	23
endgame	5	16
foul	0	0
total	30	56

Result

Final score

30 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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