Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.75 – 123.56

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±11.7

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 67.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 18.93Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 12.74Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.8 ±9.5

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 43.12Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 67.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 13.36Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 8130, 1257

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1391, 8130, 1257

Auto

14.4 15%

Teleop

61.3 65%

Endgame

18.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 103, 190, 7414

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 103, 190, 7414

Auto

24.9 21%

Teleop

81.4 67%

Endgame

14.3 12%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.8
Score range: 83–140
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 91.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336Season APEX562.8

14.4Auto24.9

61.3Teleop81.4

18.9Endgame14.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	44
teleop	81	119
endgame	19	30
foul	0	0
total	123	193

Result

Final score

123 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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