Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
48.47 – 66.56
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
29 – 117
Prediction correct · off by 35 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 182 ±12.2
Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 40.32Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 86Event APEX 7.26Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 0.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.1 ±11.2
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 25.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 34.61Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 6.16Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8714, 834, 2554
39
/ 100 compatProjected
48.5 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 8714, 834, 2554
Auto
4.2 10%
Teleop
34.2 78%
Endgame
5.6 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 24%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1923, 1640, 4652
47
/ 100 compatProjected
66.6 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1923, 1640, 4652
Auto
1.2 2%
Teleop
47.5 77%
Endgame
12.7 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 24%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.52
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score48.5pts
Blue projected score66.6pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 24%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -18.1
- Score range
- 31–84
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
182Season APEX422.1
4.2Auto1.2
34.2Teleop47.5
5.6Endgame12.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 1 | 18 |
| teleop | 28 | 80 |
| endgame | 0 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 29 | 117 |
Result
Final score
29 – 117
Prediction correct · off by 35 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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