Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.21 – 44.36

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.1 ±9.9

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 82.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 13.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 64.15Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.4 ±12.7

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 24.46Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 3.21Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 16.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1218, 2720, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1218, 2720, 1640

Auto

28.6 19%

Teleop

88.8 58%

Endgame

36.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1257, 7414, 8721

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1257, 7414, 8721

Auto

19.2 44%

Teleop

20.5 47%

Endgame

4.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.2pts

Blue projected score44.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.9
Score range: 23–181
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 116.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.1Season APEX129.4

28.6Auto19.2

88.8Teleop20.5

36.8Endgame4.1

12Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	114	31
endgame	34	7
foul	0	0
total	163	50

Result

Final score

163 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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