Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.22 – 124.9

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.3 ±11

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 95.38Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 55.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 17.78Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.9 ±11.6

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 41.16Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 36.41Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 47.33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7045, 25, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 25, 11104

Auto

24.8 15%

Teleop

98.2 59%

Endgame

43.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2191, 4573, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2191, 4573, 303

Auto

28.1 25%

Teleop

63.3 56%

Endgame

22.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.2pts

Blue projected score124.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 96–197
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 158.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.3Season APEX298.9

24.8Auto28.1

98.2Teleop63.3

43.5Endgame22.3

46Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	22
teleop	135	72
endgame	42	17
foul	0	0
total	206	111

Result

Final score

206 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Match videos

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