Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
255.03 – 195.67
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
273 – 311
Prediction missed · off by 66.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 21.59Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 92.98Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 140.46Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.7 ±9.9
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 46.37Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 79.49Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 69.81Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4750, 293, 3314
81
/ 100 compatProjected
255 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4750, 293, 3314
Auto
43.8 18%
Teleop
137.7 56%
Endgame
65.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5407, 3637, 1403
71
/ 100 compatProjected
195.7 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5407, 3637, 1403
Auto
37.1 19%
Teleop
114.0 60%
Endgame
39.5 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score255pts
Blue projected score195.7pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 59.4
- Score range
- 168–283
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
403.1Season APEX565.7
43.8Auto37.1
137.7Teleop114
65Endgame39.5
22Consistency16
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 59 |
| teleop | 137 | 188 |
| endgame | 48 | 44 |
| foul | 50 | 20 |
| total | 273 | 311 |
Result
Final score
273 – 311
Prediction missed · off by 66.7 pts
Match videos
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