Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.42 – 166.27

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.1 ±8.7

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 148.85Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 30.18Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 228.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.3 ±11

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 94.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 54.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 16.72Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 433, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 484, 433, 5895

Auto

80.6 20%

Teleop

228.9 56%

Endgame

99.7 24%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 25, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 25, 11104

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

98.8 60%

Endgame

41.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score407.4pts

Blue projected score166.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.2
Score range: 138–435
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.1Season APEX279.3

80.6Auto23.5

228.9Teleop98.8

99.7Endgame41.3

24Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	32
teleop	234	97
endgame	91	54
foul	5	0
total	432	183

Result

Final score

432 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Match videos

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