Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
125.57 – 176.19
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
129 – 99
Prediction missed · off by 40.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.9 ±11.6
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 40.89Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 35.86Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 48.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.6 ±11.6
Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 76.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 56.52Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 42.81Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2191, 4573, 303
53
/ 100 compatProjected
125.6 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 2191, 4573, 303
Auto
30.4 25%
Teleop
72.0 59%
Endgame
18.9 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 75, 102, 2495
70
/ 100 compatProjected
176.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 75, 102, 2495
Auto
35.3 21%
Teleop
85.1 50%
Endgame
50.1 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score125.6pts
Blue projected score176.2pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -50.6
- Score range
- 98–204
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
298.9Season APEX254.6
30.4Auto35.3
72Teleop85.1
18.9Endgame50.1
18Consistency38
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 21 |
| teleop | 23 | 54 |
| endgame | 37 | 19 |
| foul | 50 | 5 |
| total | 129 | 99 |
Result
Final score
129 – 99
Prediction missed · off by 40.3 pts
Match videos
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