Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.73 – 171.95

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±12.2

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 22.16Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 40.8Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 27.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284 ±11

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 83.32Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 38.85Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 49.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2458, 428, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2458, 428, 1279

Auto

27.6 33%

Teleop

37.7 46%

Endgame

17.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5438, 4361, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5438, 4361, 56

Auto

20.3 12%

Teleop

95.7 57%

Endgame

50.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.7pts

Blue projected score172pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.2
Score range: 63–200
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.4Season APEX284

27.6Auto20.3

37.7Teleop95.7

17.4Endgame50.9

12Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	17
teleop	40	76
endgame	12	38
foul	0	0
total	79	131

Result

Final score

79 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Match videos

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