Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.76 – 174.18

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.7 ±9.9

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 40.38Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 73.97Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 64.41Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.6 ±11.6

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 76.55Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 55.86Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 41.77Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 3637, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 3637, 1403

Auto

34.0 20%

Teleop

103.5 60%

Endgame

35.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 75, 102, 2495

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 102, 2495

Auto

32.3 19%

Teleop

90.9 54%

Endgame

43.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.8pts

Blue projected score174.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.6
Score range: 146–207
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.7Season APEX254.6

34Auto32.3

103.5Teleop90.9

35.7Endgame43.9

19Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	49
teleop	149	65
endgame	56	77
foul	5	0
total	261	191

Result

Final score

261 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Match videos

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