Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.34 – 132.57

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±10.5

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 15.89Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 87.23Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 134.22Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.9 ±11.6

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 43.22Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 37.76Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 51.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4750, 293, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 293, 3314

Auto

40.9 18%

Teleop

127.5 56%

Endgame

59.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2191, 4573, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2191, 4573, 303

Auto

31.5 25%

Teleop

73.4 58%

Endgame

22.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.3pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.8
Score range: 105–265
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 154.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.1Season APEX298.9

40.9Auto31.5

127.5Teleop73.4

59.2Endgame22.6

39Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	29
teleop	173	72
endgame	89	9
foul	5	0
total	323	110

Result

Final score

323 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.