Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.28 – 180.84

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.3 ±11

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 89.44Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 51.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 10.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284 ±11

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 86.74Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 41.43Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 52.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7045, 25, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 25, 11104

Auto

22.0 15%

Teleop

85.7 58%

Endgame

40.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5438, 4361, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5438, 4361, 56

Auto

21.4 12%

Teleop

101.8 58%

Endgame

51.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.3pts

Blue projected score180.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 123–209
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.3Season APEX284

22Auto21.4

85.7Teleop101.8

40.5Endgame51.7

33Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	150	80
endgame	47	54
foul	0	0
total	228	154

Result

Final score

228 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 51.8 pts

Match videos

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