Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.75 – 173.78

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±10.5

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 19.35Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 91.6Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 138.8Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.3 ±11

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 97.18Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 19.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 56.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4750, 293, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 293, 3314

Auto

44.3 19%

Teleop

129.7 55%

Endgame

61.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 11104, 25

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 11104, 25

Auto

25.2 15%

Teleop

103.9 60%

Endgame

43.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.8pts

Blue projected score173.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76
Score range: 145–279
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.1Season APEX279.3

44.3Auto25.2

129.7Teleop103.9

61.1Endgame43.2

24Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	35
teleop	62	42
endgame	40	29
foul	25	15
total	186	121

Result

Final score

186 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Match videos

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