Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.22 – 214.41

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 22.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.1 ±8.7

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 149.78Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 30.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 229.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.7 ±9.9

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 52.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 85.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 76.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 433, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 484, 433, 5895

Auto

83.7 20%

Teleop

229.0 56%

Endgame

98.3 24%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5407, 3637, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 3637, 1403

Auto

40.4 19%

Teleop

126.6 61%

Endgame

40.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score410.2pts

Blue projected score214.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.8
Score range: 185–439
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.1Season APEX565.7

83.7Auto40.4

229Teleop126.6

98.3Endgame40.3

21Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	41
teleop	217	160
endgame	102	49
foul	5	0
total	419	250

Result

Final score

419 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 22.2 pts

Match videos

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