Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.76 – 163.98

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±10.5

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 21.93Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 93.73Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 141.1Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284 ±11

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 80.42Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 36.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 46.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4750, 293, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 293, 3314

Auto

42.7 18%

Teleop

136.5 57%

Endgame

62.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5438, 4361, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5438, 4361, 56

Auto

19.6 12%

Teleop

91.6 57%

Endgame

49.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score256.8pts

Blue projected score164pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.8
Score range: 135–286
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 158.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.1Season APEX284

42.7Auto19.6

136.5Teleop91.6

62.2Endgame49.2

20Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	31
teleop	88	41
endgame	56	59
foul	10	20
total	209	151

Result

Final score

209 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Match videos

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