Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.18 – 103.26

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±12.2

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 43.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 13.87Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 14.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.6 ±12.2

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 17.81Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 71.58Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 13.87Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 75, 4750, 2458

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 4750, 2458

Auto

11.1 15%

Teleop

40.6 55%

Endgame

21.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 56, 8130, 5407

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 56, 8130, 5407

Auto

15.7 15%

Teleop

58.5 56%

Endgame

29.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.2pts

Blue projected score103.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.1
Score range: 49–126
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX200.6

11.1Auto15.7

40.6Teleop58.5

21.6Endgame29.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	36
teleop	48	73
endgame	19	23
foul	0	15
total	82	147

Result

Final score

82 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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