Qualification · Qualification 8
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
112.28 – 39.16
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
58 – 115
Prediction missed · off by 65.1 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±14
Season APEX 45Event APEX 65.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 38Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 8.57Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 18.19Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 7.06Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 13.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9439, 433, 4573
60
/ 100 compatProjected
112.3 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 9439, 433, 4573
Auto
14.0 12%
Teleop
68.6 61%
Endgame
29.7 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2191, 6860, 25
38
/ 100 compatProjected
39.2 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2191, 6860, 25
Auto
16.0 38%
Teleop
17.5 41%
Endgame
8.9 21%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.18
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score112.3pts
Blue projected score39.2pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 73.1
- Score range
- 15–136
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
185.8Season APEX227.1
14Auto16
68.6Teleop17.5
29.7Endgame8.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 24 |
| teleop | 23 | 70 |
| endgame | 8 | 21 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 58 | 115 |
Result
Final score
58 – 115
Prediction missed · off by 65.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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