Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.86 – 59.48

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 143.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.8 ±9.8

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 29.43Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 38.86Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 34.57Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 685.7 ±9.3

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 29.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 17.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 12.34Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 293, 3314, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 293, 3314, 5438

Auto

21.1 21%

Teleop

58.6 57%

Endgame

23.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1403, 3637, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1403, 3637, 303

Auto

12.8 22%

Teleop

35.3 59%

Endgame

11.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.9pts

Blue projected score59.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: 37–125
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.8Season APEX685.7

21.1Auto12.8

58.6Teleop35.3

23.1Endgame11.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	37
teleop	172	118
endgame	65	1
foul	15	0
total	294	156

Result

Final score

294 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 143.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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