Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.35 – 145.27

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.2 ±11.2

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 70.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 3.86Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 48.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±14.4

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 19.83Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 44.87Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 80.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3637, 10366, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3637, 10366, 56

Auto

17.1 14%

Teleop

72.8 60%

Endgame

30.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9439, 2495, 75

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9439, 2495, 75

Auto

21.8 16%

Teleop

77.2 57%

Endgame

37.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.4pts

Blue projected score145.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.9
Score range: 95–172
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.2Season APEX229.4

17.1Auto21.8

72.8Teleop77.2

30.7Endgame37.5

63Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	24
teleop	112	79
endgame	57	15
foul	0	0
total	180	118

Result

Final score

180 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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