Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.95 – 135.07

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.1 ±11.1

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 34.51Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 143.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 38.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.9 ±12.1

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 38.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 54Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 42.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4573, 484, 5407

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4573, 484, 5407

Auto

31.9 15%

Teleop

122.3 59%

Endgame

54.7 26%

Strengths

· 484 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 428, 102, 2191

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 428, 102, 2191

Auto

31.7 25%

Teleop

55.2 44%

Endgame

39.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216pts

Blue projected score135.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.9
Score range: 108–243
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.1Season APEX187.9

31.9Auto31.7

122.3Teleop55.2

54.7Endgame39.9

6Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	46
teleop	117	89
endgame	98	26
foul	0	5
total	257	166

Result

Final score

257 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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