Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.84 – 191.7

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±11.7

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 6.15Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 98.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 38.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±10.5

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 49.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 133.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 9.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8588, 7045, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8588, 7045, 1279

Auto

28.6 21%

Teleop

83.6 61%

Endgame

25.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 25, 3314, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 25, 3314, 11104

Auto

30.1 16%

Teleop

106.0 58%

Endgame

48.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.8pts

Blue projected score191.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.9
Score range: 117–219
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 151.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.4Season APEX403.1

28.6Auto30.1

83.6Teleop106

25.9Endgame48.1

18Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	42
teleop	11	95
endgame	8	60
foul	0	15
total	39	212

Result

Final score

39 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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