Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.87 – 137.53

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284 ±11

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 86.47Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 47.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 39.25Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±11.6

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 41.2Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 84.47Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 11.86Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5438, 56, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5438, 56, 4361

Auto

20.1 12%

Teleop

100.5 61%

Endgame

44.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2495, 293, 4750

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2495, 293, 4750

Auto

29.1 21%

Teleop

63.1 46%

Endgame

44.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.9pts

Blue projected score137.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.3
Score range: 111–200
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284Season APEX217.7

20.1Auto29.1

100.5Teleop63.1

44.6Endgame44.9

71Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	34
teleop	102	120
endgame	65	27
foul	0	0
total	197	181

Result

Final score

197 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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