Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.79 – 188.31

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±12.2

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 8.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 97.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 3.27Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.1 ±14.5

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 138.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 25.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 24.47Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11104, 7045, 3340

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 7045, 3340

Auto

16.8 15%

Teleop

67.1 59%

Endgame

30.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 2458, 9439

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 2458, 9439

Auto

33.6 19%

Teleop

104.0 59%

Endgame

39.2 22%

Strengths

· 3314 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.8pts

Blue projected score188.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.5
Score range: 83–215
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 152.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.6Season APEX350.1

16.8Auto33.6

67.1Teleop104

30.3Endgame39.2

48Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	27
teleop	59	64
endgame	37	43
foul	5	0
total	120	134

Result

Final score

120 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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