Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.72 – 35.62

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605 ±10.7

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 134.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 29.61Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 62.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106.5 ±13.3

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 11.5Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 16.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 7.62Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 10232, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 484, 10232, 3637

Auto

23.5 11%

Teleop

152.1 68%

Endgame

46.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4750, 8130, 9424

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 8130, 9424

Auto

19.6 49%

Teleop

15.1 37%

Endgame

5.6 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.7pts

Blue projected score35.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191.1
Score range: 9–254
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605Season APEX106.5

23.5Auto19.6

152.1Teleop15.1

46.5Endgame5.6

30Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	19
teleop	222	21
endgame	64	14
foul	5	5
total	328	59

Result

Final score

328 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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