Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.89 – 92.1

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.8 ±11.7

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 8.43Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 82.17Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 86.29Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.5 ±12.2

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 43.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 39.96Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 8.78Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8588, 75, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8588, 75, 293

Auto

27.3 17%

Teleop

87.4 53%

Endgame

48.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2191, 1279, 8714

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2191, 1279, 8714

Auto

23.9 29%

Teleop

44.6 54%

Endgame

13.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.9pts

Blue projected score92.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.8
Score range: 65–204
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.8Season APEX152.5

27.3Auto23.9

87.4Teleop44.6

48.7Endgame13.6

33Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	26
teleop	96	36
endgame	28	40
foul	0	5
total	165	107

Result

Final score

165 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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