Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.91 – 226.85

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248 ±11.2

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 28.58Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 10.69Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 83.64Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353 ±10.4

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 99.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 43.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 83.53Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 433, 6897, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 433, 6897, 293

Auto

25.4 21%

Teleop

58.7 49%

Endgame

35.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 56, 75

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 56, 75

Auto

28.7 14%

Teleop

128.9 61%

Endgame

54.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.9pts

Blue projected score226.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.9
Score range: 96–254
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 149.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248Season APEX353

25.4Auto28.7

58.7Teleop128.9

35.5Endgame54.9

31Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	20
teleop	63	141
endgame	60	62
foul	5	15
total	172	238

Result

Final score

172 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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