Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.72 – 307.51

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.4 ±11.6

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 43.07Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 50.08Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 48.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709.3 ±9.3

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 45.93Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 128.18Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 133.4Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 2495, 5407

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 2495, 5407

Auto

32.4 25%

Teleop

71.6 56%

Endgame

23.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 303, 484, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 303, 484, 3314

Auto

38.5 13%

Teleop

183.2 61%

Endgame

79.1 26%

Strengths

· 3314 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.7pts

Blue projected score307.5pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165.8
Score range: 115–335
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.4Season APEX709.3

32.4Auto38.5

71.6Teleop183.2

23.6Endgame79.1

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	64
teleop	38	228
endgame	40	89
foul	0	5
total	110	386

Result

Final score

110 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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