Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.17 – 155.95

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.2 ±11.7

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 70.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 26.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 23.38Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.1 ±12.2

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 49.4Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 101.44Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 5.11Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1403, 2458, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1403, 2458, 4361

Auto

20.7 18%

Teleop

77.1 66%

Endgame

19.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 102, 7045, 9424

/ 100 compat

Projected

156 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 102, 7045, 9424

Auto

29.4 18%

Teleop

86.0 53%

Endgame

46.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.2pts

Blue projected score156pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.8
Score range: 93–183
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.2Season APEX221.1

20.7Auto29.4

77.1Teleop86

19.2Endgame46.9

57Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	41
teleop	87	103
endgame	44	5
foul	0	5
total	165	154

Result

Final score

165 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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