Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.92 – 188.87

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±13.3

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 34.99Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 20.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX -1.5Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.8 ±14.5

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 16.3Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 18.47Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 154.1Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4573, 2458, 8588

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4573, 2458, 8588

Auto

19.1 37%

Teleop

18.9 36%

Endgame

14.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8130, 9439, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8130, 9439, 484

Auto

27.6 15%

Teleop

115.6 61%

Endgame

46.8 25%

Strengths

· 484 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.9pts

Blue projected score188.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.9
Score range: 24–219
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.8Season APEX369.8

19.1Auto27.6

18.9Teleop115.6

14Endgame46.8

21Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	11	147
endgame	2	55
foul	0	0
total	30	230

Result

Final score

30 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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