Qualification · Qualification 49
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
77.77 – 92.44
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
82 – 43
Prediction missed · off by 26.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.7 ±12.7
Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -7.19Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 30.9Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 54.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.9 ±12.2
Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 26.11Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 50.14Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 16.19Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3340, 4573, 2495
40
/ 100 compatProjected
77.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 3340, 4573, 2495
Auto
24.4 31%
Teleop
28.4 36%
Endgame
26.2 33%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4750, 1279, 6897
46
/ 100 compatProjected
92.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4750, 1279, 6897
Auto
19.4 23%
Teleop
48.4 58%
Endgame
15.4 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.53
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score77.8pts
Blue projected score92.4pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -14.7
- Score range
- 51–119
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
158.7Season APEX127.9
24.4Auto19.4
28.4Teleop48.4
26.2Endgame15.4
38Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 23 |
| teleop | 38 | 10 |
| endgame | 16 | 10 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 82 | 43 |
Result
Final score
82 – 43
Prediction missed · off by 26.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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