Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.34 – 94.92

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±11

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 49.9Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 86.83Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 51.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.6 ±14.9

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 13.64Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 44.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 36.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 293, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 293, 303

Auto

30.4 18%

Teleop

107.5 63%

Endgame

33.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8714, 25, 9439

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8714, 25, 9439

Auto

23.0 25%

Teleop

42.6 46%

Endgame

26.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.3pts

Blue projected score94.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.4
Score range: 68–215
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.2Season APEX205.6

30.4Auto23

107.5Teleop42.6

33.2Endgame26.1

74Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	12
teleop	76	47
endgame	53	20
foul	0	5
total	172	84

Result

Final score

172 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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