Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.76 – 109.78

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.1 ±10.5

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 134.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 47.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 91.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.9 ±12.7

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 34Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 27.13Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 48.65Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 2495, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 2495, 7045

Auto

31.7 12%

Teleop

152.2 60%

Endgame

71.6 28%

Strengths

· 3314 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10232, 4573, 102

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10232, 4573, 102

Auto

39.0 35%

Teleop

38.1 34%

Endgame

34.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.8pts

Blue projected score109.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163
Score range: 84–299
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 145.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.1Season APEX201.9

31.7Auto39

152.2Teleop38.1

71.6Endgame34.7

90Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	21
teleop	212	75
endgame	81	35
foul	0	5
total	350	136

Result

Final score

350 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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