Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.91 – 84.65

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.1 ±11.7

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 51.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 27.51Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 92.31Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.3 ±11.1

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 6.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 43.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 35.24Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 25, 8130, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 25, 8130, 293

Auto

33.1 19%

Teleop

102.9 60%

Endgame

34.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11104, 428, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 428, 433

Auto

20.7 24%

Teleop

17.1 20%

Endgame

47.7 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.9pts

Blue projected score84.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.3
Score range: 59–197
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.1Season APEX180.3

33.1Auto20.7

102.9Teleop17.1

34.4Endgame47.7

39Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	22
teleop	66	20
endgame	28	15
foul	5	0
total	127	57

Result

Final score

127 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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