Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.32 – 122.08

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.5 ±15.8

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 40.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 9.54Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 23.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.8 ±11.7

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 51.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 17.35Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 53.13Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9439, 10366, 6860

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9439, 10366, 6860

Auto

17.9 23%

Teleop

33.7 44%

Endgame

25.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 8714, 5407

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3637, 8714, 5407

Auto

26.8 25%

Teleop

72.5 67%

Endgame

9.7 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score122.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.8
Score range: 47–149
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 149.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.5Season APEX340.8

17.9Auto26.8

33.7Teleop72.5

25.8Endgame9.7

66Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	10	52
endgame	12	35
foul	0	0
total	36	98

Result

Final score

36 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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