Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.54 – 116.93

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.4 ±9.3

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 48.51Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 212.2Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 125.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439 ±10.5

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 46.15Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 12.18Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 58.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 5895, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 5895, 484

Auto

69.7 19%

Teleop

218.2 58%

Endgame

85.1 23%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5438, 4750, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5438, 4750, 1403

Auto

27.0 22%

Teleop

70.2 56%

Endgame

27.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score386.5pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 269.6
Score range: 91–413
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.4Season APEX439

69.7Auto27

218.2Teleop70.2

85.1Endgame27.2

84Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	31
teleop	274	123
endgame	60	74
foul	0	0
total	402	228

Result

Final score

402 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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