Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.05 – 62.86

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.1 ±13.3

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 29.53Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 9.27Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 3.25Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.1 ±12.7

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 5.79Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 36.76Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 20.31Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2458, 6897, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2458, 6897, 11104

Auto

12.8 33%

Teleop

13.2 34%

Endgame

13.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10366, 2191, 4573

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10366, 2191, 4573

Auto

21.9 35%

Teleop

25.5 41%

Endgame

14.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.1pts

Blue projected score62.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.8
Score range: 15–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 148.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.1Season APEX146.1

12.8Auto21.9

13.2Teleop25.5

13.3Endgame14.4

42Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	20	42
endgame	12	27
foul	5	0
total	54	88

Result

Final score

54 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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