Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.24 – 163.61

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±11.2

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 82.88Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 46.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 15.21Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±10.4

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 27.79Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 55.3Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 80.52Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1403, 56, 6897

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1403, 56, 6897

Auto

30.5 22%

Teleop

75.8 53%

Endgame

35.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1279, 25, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 25, 5438

Auto

29.9 19%

Teleop

90.1 57%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.2pts

Blue projected score163.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.4
Score range: 114–194
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.6Season APEX304.5

30.5Auto29.9

75.8Teleop90.1

35.4Endgame36.9

41Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	34
teleop	60	73
endgame	27	14
foul	0	0
total	103	121

Result

Final score

103 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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