Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.87 – 230.92

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.7 ±11.6

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 58.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 50.93Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 44.34Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.3 ±10.5

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 122.8Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 38Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 70.12Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 25, 102, 2495

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 25, 102, 2495

Auto

33.1 22%

Teleop

71.4 47%

Endgame

47.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 5407, 75

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 5407, 75

Auto

30.9 14%

Teleop

131.7 60%

Endgame

55.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score230.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: 128–257
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.7Season APEX428.3

33.1Auto30.9

71.4Teleop131.7

47.8Endgame55.7

44Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	37
teleop	65	164
endgame	48	66
foul	0	70
total	141	337

Result

Final score

141 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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