Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.43 – 172.98

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.9 ±11.6

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 14.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 30.11Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 34.88Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.6 ±12.4

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 46.48Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 74.9Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 51.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4361, 428, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4361, 428, 1279

Auto

23.8 31%

Teleop

36.8 48%

Endgame

16.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8130, 1403, 10232

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8130, 1403, 10232

Auto

31.9 19%

Teleop

111.5 65%

Endgame

28.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.4pts

Blue projected score173pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.5
Score range: 53–199
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.9Season APEX374.6

23.8Auto31.9

36.8Teleop111.5

16.2Endgame28.5

68Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	41
teleop	78	19
endgame	35	6
foul	20	0
total	164	66

Result

Final score

164 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 95.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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