Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.1 – 120.41

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466 ±11.2

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 137.17Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 64.91Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 28.02Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±14.9

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -0.72Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 88.46Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 32.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 5438, 8714

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 484, 5438, 8714

Auto

22.3 10%

Teleop

127.6 56%

Endgame

77.8 34%

Strengths

· 484 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3340, 293, 9439

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3340, 293, 9439

Auto

24.4 21%

Teleop

65.3 56%

Endgame

27.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score230.1pts

Blue projected score120.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.7
Score range: 93–257
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466Season APEX214.3

22.3Auto24.4

127.6Teleop65.3

77.8Endgame27.6

75Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	21
teleop	83	68
endgame	18	42
foul	0	0
total	127	131

Result

Final score

127 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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