Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.35 – 255.52

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±11.2

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 48.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 33.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 42.25Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.6 ±10.7

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 11.13Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 44.99Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 199.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 56, 2458, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 56, 2458, 433

Auto

18.9 17%

Teleop

63.1 57%

Endgame

29.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9424, 3637, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9424, 3637, 5895

Auto

69.4 26%

Teleop

151.8 58%

Endgame

41.9 16%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.4pts

Blue projected score255.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.2
Score range: 98–282
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.9Season APEX539.6

18.9Auto69.4

63.1Teleop151.8

29.2Endgame41.9

22Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	67
teleop	37	194
endgame	32	40
foul	0	0
total	103	301

Result

Final score

103 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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