Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.84 – 71.03

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.2 ±11

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -1.49Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 52.18Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 33.15Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.9 ±13.9

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 5.54Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 8.09Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 57.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11104, 5438, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 5438, 303

Auto

22.3 26%

Teleop

32.5 38%

Endgame

30.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6897, 8588, 8130

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6897, 8588, 8130

Auto

13.5 19%

Teleop

35.7 50%

Endgame

22.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.8pts

Blue projected score71pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 45–110
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 146.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.2Season APEX125.9

22.3Auto13.5

32.5Teleop35.7

30.7Endgame22.2

78Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	22
teleop	89	24
endgame	34	1
foul	0	0
total	151	47

Result

Final score

151 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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