Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.38 – 143.37

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.7 ±12.2

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 14.32Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 23.3Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 36.76Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.3 ±11.6

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 36.76Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 21.19Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 85.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4573, 8714, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4573, 8714, 56

Auto

28.2 39%

Teleop

20.3 28%

Endgame

23.4 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5407, 4361, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 4361, 7045

Auto

20.4 15%

Teleop

78.0 57%

Endgame

37.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score143.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69
Score range: 48–169
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.7Season APEX217.3

28.2Auto20.4

20.3Teleop78

23.4Endgame37.8

31Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	41	86
endgame	35	13
foul	15	0
total	123	121

Result

Final score

123 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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