Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.38 – 82.32

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.9 ±11.2

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 27.72Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 34.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 40.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.2 ±12.7

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 29.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 17.55Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 34.97Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6860, 1279, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6860, 1279, 433

Auto

17.7 18%

Teleop

49.8 50%

Endgame

31.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2458, 2191, 2495

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2458, 2191, 2495

Auto

13.2 16%

Teleop

46.0 56%

Endgame

23.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 55–129
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.9Season APEX182.2

17.7Auto13.2

49.8Teleop46

31.4Endgame23.1

14Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	29
teleop	41	72
endgame	11	13
foul	20	30
total	93	144

Result

Final score

93 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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