Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.99 – 152.81

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342 ±11.7

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 21.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 89.04Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 40Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.6 ±11.6

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 84.9Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 17.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 50.58Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6860, 3637, 2495

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6860, 3637, 2495

Auto

25.1 17%

Teleop

88.7 60%

Endgame

34.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 293, 11104, 102

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 293, 11104, 102

Auto

35.8 24%

Teleop

73.3 48%

Endgame

43.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.8
Score range: 121–183
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342Season APEX236.6

25.1Auto35.8

88.7Teleop73.3

34.6Endgame43

24Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	25	51
endgame	10	32
foul	0	0
total	62	103

Result

Final score

62 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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