Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.61 – 107.56

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.4 ±12.7

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 42.68Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 36.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 6.36Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206 ±12.2

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 59.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -0.92Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 49.32Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 102, 5407, 10366

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 102, 5407, 10366

Auto

24.0 28%

Teleop

22.6 27%

Endgame

38.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 75, 11104, 8130

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 11104, 8130

Auto

19.0 19%

Teleop

56.6 58%

Endgame

21.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score107.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22
Score range: 59–135
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.4Season APEX206

24Auto19

22.6Teleop56.6

38.6Endgame21.9

73Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	22
teleop	63	68
endgame	29	40
foul	0	0
total	126	130

Result

Final score

126 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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