Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.98 – 184.09

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276 ±11.7

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 33.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 94.3Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.1 ±11.2

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 23.34Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 112.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 48Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6860, 56, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

146 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6860, 56, 293

Auto

25.3 18%

Teleop

80.6 57%

Endgame

34.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1279, 3314, 10232

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 3314, 10232

Auto

37.9 21%

Teleop

101.7 56%

Endgame

42.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.1
Score range: 121–209
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 138.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276Season APEX364.1

25.3Auto37.9

80.6Teleop101.7

34.5Endgame42.5

24Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	43
teleop	112	154
endgame	42	45
foul	15	25
total	191	267

Result

Final score

191 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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