Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.87 – 115.09

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.4 ±12.2

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 36.56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -0.57Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 35.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±11.2

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 1.98Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 75.25Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 37.86Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 3340, 25

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 3340, 25

Auto

23.1 39%

Teleop

35.1 59%

Endgame

1.0 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2458, 293, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2458, 293, 3637

Auto

26.7 24%

Teleop

71.9 65%

Endgame

12.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.9pts

Blue projected score115.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.2
Score range: 48–139
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.4Season APEX429.7

23.1Auto26.7

35.1Teleop71.9

1Endgame12

104Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	37
teleop	44	141
endgame	22	20
foul	0	5
total	87	203

Result

Final score

87 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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