Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.9 – 126.08

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±12.2

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 30Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 39.11Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 72.79Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±12.4

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 8.9Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 11.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 105.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2495, 10232, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2495, 10232, 5438

Auto

22.0 17%

Teleop

72.8 56%

Endgame

35.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6897, 6860, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6897, 6860, 484

Auto

10.5 8%

Teleop

75.4 60%

Endgame

39.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.9pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 102–166
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265Season APEX375.4

22Auto10.5

72.8Teleop75.4

35.7Endgame39.6

72Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	15
teleop	84	113
endgame	46	64
foul	0	0
total	163	192

Result

Final score

163 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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